Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14190cfe7bb842c7a6e7fec033a3056d71c347de16b3786cd7d1126dc00484a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wellington Phoenix FCof Adelaide United FC, Wellington Phoenix FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,242 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Adelaide United FC | 34c | 1,819$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.64 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 66c | 1,212$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.63 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adelaide United FC | 4c | 844.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 66c | 383.35$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Adelaide United FC | 32c | 309.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 67c | 242.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Adelaide United FC | 34c | 220.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Adelaide United FC | 34c | 214.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 67c | 194.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 65c | 191.15$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 68c | 123.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 122.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 120.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 68c | 116.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 68c | 115.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Adelaide United FC | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 68c | 90.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Adelaide United FC | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Adelaide United FC | 32c | 87.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 72.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…8e82backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 68c | 69.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Adelaide United FC | 35c | 64.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…5df7backed Adelaide United FC | 35c | 63.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed Adelaide United FC | 35c | 62.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Adelaide United FC | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6cefbacked Adelaide United FC | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Adelaide United FC | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 69c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 67c | 25.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 67c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.