Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026a78742b723f60e6e812eaba7d80512962f765226f198a665ec8d44ae15ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,279 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 0c | 5,560$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 34c | 630.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 525.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 27c | 495$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.79 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 55c | 389.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 15c | 380.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.21 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 367.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 363.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 347.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 63c | 323.83$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 303.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 300.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 231.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 215.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 209.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 200.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 197.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 119.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 102.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 30c | 88.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 87.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 75.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 75.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 69c | 70.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 39c | 70.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 62c | 61.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 55.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 52.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 79c | 50.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 72c | 42.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 75c | 42.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 34c | 40.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 66c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 74c | 37.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 80c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 61c | 26.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 44c | 26.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.