Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4201e2fe158c148c03ae1699709d2eb799f96904d62f3427c770bab5074ef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,905 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 2,152$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 1,847$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.1 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 382.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 44c | 309.06$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.22 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 294.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 40c | 189.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 79c | 185.59$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 155.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 150.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 131.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 44c | 125.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 46c | 120.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 120.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 113.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 112.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 40c | 110.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 60c | 100.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 46c | 98.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed Yes | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 93.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 61c | 89.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 33c | 87.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 41c | 86.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 58c | 85.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Yes | 41c | 79.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 60c | 77.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 38c | 60.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 58.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 26c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 21c | 53.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 48.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 63c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac6…2629backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 34.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 65c | 33.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 67c | 33.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 50c | 28.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 49c | 23.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 46c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 22.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…2580backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 47c | 21.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 79c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 61c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.