Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027ff098a8ba6c8cc9f1710e6fec504098e7a2c1ece1eb12ca208b4849d7542b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 36c | 1,180$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.19 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 640$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 299.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 270.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 252.77$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 39c | 249$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 214$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 202.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 198.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 191$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 170.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 166.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 64c | 125.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 120.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 120.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 110.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 62c | 110.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 99.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 83.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 79.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 49c | 61.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 58.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 53.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 50.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 41c | 44.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 44.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 42.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 41.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 38.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 64c | 33.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 60c | 29.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 60c | 22.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 65c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.