NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a340a0121010264e042b3ff3b558098d377981425d545dce6fccb941d098d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 49c | 60,161$29,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,477.49 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 51c | 35,949$18,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,615.02 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 9,003$4,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,414.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Under | 51c | 4,160$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.4 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 51c | 3,631$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.19 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 2,723$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.27 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 2,133$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.17 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 1,834$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.66 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 1,348$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.68 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 1,069$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.55 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Under | 51c | 693.09$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.61 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Under | 51c | 590.2$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 522.29$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 491$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Under | 51c | 440$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 76c | 360.09$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 355$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 271$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 49c | 264.79$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 52c | 255.88$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 76c | 240$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 47c | 228$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 208.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 51c | 188$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 49c | 165$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 155.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 155.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…094abacked Under | 51c | 146.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Over | 49c | 136.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 99.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 51c | 92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0483…6df9backed Under | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 34.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Over | 46c | 33.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 31.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 51c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 54c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Predators: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. PredatorsPredators won
- Capitals vs. Predators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Predators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.