World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02aaea36b22da0995fe34fab28a389eec281f056fb86bbc639f86540d7cd9b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c99…abafbacked Yes | 5c | 4,005$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…1933backed Yes | 4c | 2,808$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c816backed Yes | 4c | 2,661$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,090$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae4…fc06backed Yes | 5c | 2,052$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…32e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,593$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…97ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,474$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…3c22backed Yes | 5c | 1,158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…2425backed Yes | 4c | 926.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 4c | 800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd144…3781backed Yes | 3c | 721.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…1c9bbacked Yes | 3c | 719.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 592.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…6a4fbacked Yes | 5c | 535.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…cf6ebacked Yes | 15c | 504.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked Yes | 6c | 503.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…cb87backed Yes | 4c | 455.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 450.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 443.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…6d7fbacked Yes | 4c | 402.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 3c | 368$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…4625backed Yes | 5c | 365.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea82…153abacked Yes | 4c | 355.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…b632backed Yes | 5c | 314.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 310$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…0a3fbacked Yes | 5c | 309.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Yes | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 80c | 222.5$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 213$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…a28cbacked Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…bcd9backed Yes | 7c | 151.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a55bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed No | 79c | 17.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.