Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02af7d0a6e4607eb1cb6d92bb1edd78f3324a6d3af14817f1603fc52a24a7887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 6,154$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.34 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 2,062$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 2,000$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 943.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 826.09$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 825$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 741.06$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.57 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 359.25$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0b…d655backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 203.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 164$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 149.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 66.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 60.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…d78cbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Iowa State Cyclones | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-7.5)this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 145.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-6.5)Iowa State Cyclones won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.