TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Iowa State Cyclonesof Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69e9…dee1backed Kansas Jayhawks47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7001118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick47cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Iowa State Cyclones53c9,241$4,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337.071,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Iowa State Cyclones54c1,020$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2561652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Kansas Jayhawks59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59014940.3%60 W · 89 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Iowa State Cyclones41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59042934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Kansas Jayhawks59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Iowa State Cyclones55c930.57$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.752969%20 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Iowa State Cyclones50c864.28$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.336555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Iowa State Cyclones41c750$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.515356.2%86 W · 67 L+14.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kansas Jayhawks45c520.62$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.282,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kansas Jayhawks45c432.2$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas Jayhawks48c356.88$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.235,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kansas Jayhawks46c355.63$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.165,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Iowa State Cyclones43c288.37$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.194,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Kansas Jayhawks45c282.09$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9411244.6%50 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c1…9511backed Iowa State Cyclones57c275.5$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.581346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Kansas Jayhawks50c248.38$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1916445.1%74 W · 90 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Iowa State Cyclones55c217$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6574649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Iowa State Cyclones54c210$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.612649.2%62 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Kansas Jayhawks47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa State Cyclones50c172.2$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.157448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Kansas Jayhawks50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8015733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Kansas Jayhawks50c153.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.22,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kansas Jayhawks49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Iowa State Cyclones51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Kansas Jayhawks50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014447.2%68 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Iowa State Cyclones56c96.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7932652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0e…152ebacked Kansas Jayhawks77c95.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-55%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Kansas Jayhawks49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.416551.5%85 W · 80 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Iowa State Cyclones53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Iowa State Cyclones46c55.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.681,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kansas Jayhawks49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59c…e944backed Kansas Jayhawks46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick56cpaid-60.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Kansas Jayhawks50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510755.1%59 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Iowa State Cyclones41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.534649.1%170 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Kansas Jayhawks47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204050%20 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed Kansas Jayhawks50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Kansas Jayhawks59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Kansas Jayhawks50c33.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.833046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Iowa State Cyclones51c30.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Iowa State Cyclones54c29.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6223363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Iowa State Cyclones53c24.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5357248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Iowa State Cyclones53c19.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.113561.5%83 W · 52 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.