Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02bbeb9de42a6325338d2953e12eaf11f754797e19cdc0b9b2463dc083bc6bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 338.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 329.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 14c | 197.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 185.11$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 12c | 173.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 164.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 11c | 147.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 51c | 143.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 9c | 136.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 132$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 97.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 79.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 66c | 77.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 71.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 30c | 70.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 66.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 55c | 65.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 58.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 53.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…0b8fbacked Yes | 79c | 49.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed No | 26c | 48.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 56c | 44.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 39c | 43.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 42.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 27c | 39.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 38.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 33.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 46c | 30.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 27.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 41c | 25.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 70c | 24.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 54c | 23.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.