MLB · resolved market
Will Italy win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c968e0614939bed3418f44b815554a8137fce2c00032c4018d97fe7eac2a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,831 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,642$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.47 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 2c | 790.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.39 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 3c | 539.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.09 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked Yes | 2c | 531.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +2,408.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 23c | 332.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.33 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 34c | 323.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…36d5backed Yes | 10c | 124.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +378.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 121.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 120.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 119$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 92.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 34c | 46.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…742dbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 39.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 48c | 30.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…9570backed No | 64c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?this page
- Will Great Britain win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will Mexico win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
- Will USA win Pool B at the 2026 World Baseball Classic?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.