NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d4be281bb8e9a07f932d426555d2dda34c03dd77556cf6365d6ae49a357120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Buccaneers, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Buccaneers | 44c | 5,052$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Falcons | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Falcons | 54c | 3,180$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.56 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Buccaneers | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Buccaneers | 47c | 529.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.89 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Falcons | 55c | 124.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…f0a8backed Buccaneers | 48c | 99.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Buccaneers | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Falcons | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…80a2backed Falcons | 55c | 51.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Falcons | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Buccaneers | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Falcons | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Buccaneers | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Buccaneers | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)this page
- Buccaneers vs. FalconsBuccaneers won
- Buccaneers vs. Falcons: O/U 47.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.