Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d7cf2a343c4292adf32dbbf51217be988b73a1168f6db2550e27ef9329a442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 0c | 2,561$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 791.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 583.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 553.09$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 438.39$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 71c | 382.72$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 364.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 342$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 253.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 240.47$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 8c | 198.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 190.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 175.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 60c | 166.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 164.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 61c | 136.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 120.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 49c | 93.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 91.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 81.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 76.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 66c | 76.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 59c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 69c | 65.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 58.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 24c | 50.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 48.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 46.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 37c | 46.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 45.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 45.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 44.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 42.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…9dc9backed Yes | 38c | 40.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 40.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 34.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 32.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 31.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 56c | 30.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 42c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 38c | 29.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 58c | 26.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 25.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 65c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef4…7967backed Yes | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 20.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 54c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 66c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 57c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 61c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.