Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf32a1808a24636cfea9561757c01216f58c2a47692b602f637e611e48a17e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,235$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,100$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 721.36$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.04 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 645$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 355.47$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 342$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 330.56$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 37c | 306.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 284.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 26c | 241.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 240.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 78c | 239.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 194.37$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 187.92$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 185.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 162.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 64c | 155.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 64c | 155.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 140.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 130.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 73c | 123.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 54c | 121.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 117.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 62c | 114.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 76c | 113.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 107.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 96.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 89.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 88.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 46c | 87.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 62c | 74.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 58c | 67.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 34c | 66.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 64.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 64.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 60.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 59.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 58.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 60c | 57.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 56.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 37c | 56.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 37c | 56.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 52.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 51.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…f506backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 46.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 43.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 38.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 32c | 37.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 50c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 36.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 56c | 35.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 35.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 32.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 58c | 28.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 28.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 27.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 49c | 27.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 49c | 25.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 55c | 18.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.