Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e1a13cdc54de845d646e7065a8cc3115e53dcbbfda20062f327eb28261540b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cabo Verdeof Cabo Verde, Bermuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Bermuda | 36c | 412.12$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Bermuda | 30c | 329.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 26.1%74 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cabo Verde | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 260 | 47.3%123 W · 137 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cabo Verde | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Cabo Verde | 69c | 159.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Bermuda | 35c | 155.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Cabo Verde | 63c | 108$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Cabo Verde | 53c | 74.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Cabo Verde | 47c | 65.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 607 | 52.4%318 W · 289 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bermuda | 27c | 61.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Cabo Verde | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Bermuda | 27c | 46.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cabo Verde | 73c | 32.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Bermuda | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5)this page
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)Cabo Verde won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.