South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e6eb3fff3d62c254e1c88cb73beeca9b54e98af0112dc48eec880ddbeb7aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Belgranoof CA Belgrano, CS Independiente Rivadavia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 79c | 4,179$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.36 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed CA Belgrano | 24c | 3,000$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.65 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CA Belgrano | 24c | 1,766$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.44 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA Belgrano | 23c | 1,368$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.5 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 987.72$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.67 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed CA Belgrano | 77c | 888$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 79c | 324.76$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.29 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 289$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 77c | 270$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 205$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Belgrano | 27c | 180.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 73.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 78c | 68.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked CA Belgrano | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked CA Belgrano | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2cd4backed CA Belgrano | 77c | 44.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed CA Belgrano | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 23.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked CA Belgrano | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CS Independiente Rivadavia | 76c | 17.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)this page
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: CS Independiente Rivadavia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-2.5)CS Independiente Rivadavia won
- Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)CA Belgrano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.