TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals48c2,091$1,002 inWon+$1,089.4812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles55c999$549 inLost-$549.4533864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles77c481.39$370 inLost-$369.5610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles56c399.02$224 inLost-$223.646,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals44c389.99$171 inWon+$218.638,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles65c369.66$240 inLost-$240.282,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals66c265.59$175 inWon+$90.912,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles49c254.08$125 inLost-$125.078,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles43c53.1$23 inLost-$23.15,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles64c53$34 inLost-$33.921,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Baltimore Orioles39c45.72$18 inLost-$17.8324654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Baltimore Orioles38c38.48$15 inLost-$14.519315.1%14 W · 79 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Baltimore Orioles39c38.46$15 inLost-$1551656.6%292 W · 224 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles55c38.26$21 inLost-$21.022,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Baltimore Orioles56c31.39$18 inLost-$17.5811155.9%62 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Washington Nationals69c28.99$20 inWon+$8.9946557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Baltimore Orioles45c27$12 inLost-$12.1510215.7%16 W · 86 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Washington Nationals44c26.96$12 inWon+$15.144737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles62c24.29$15 inLost-$15.062,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals65c21.52$14 inWon+$7.592,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals62c20.75$13 inWon+$7.83,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Baltimore Orioles69c16.35$11 inLost-$11.281,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.