MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2ed27220f9032749b23c0ccfb89411f0f6509f13cc978b47cee4e8387e13505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 9,021$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 7,591$4,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 1,192$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.64 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 1,042$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 1,009$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 713.17$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 416$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 246$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 245.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 75.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 71.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 71.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…37e0backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 64.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 56.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 53.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Washington Nationals | 51c | 39.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 39.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 37.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 31.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 26.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 23.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.