MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef5673039780a8176527e2b4c0245772b13c8f82ee33f47c6216f9ae0adf15b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 8,052$4,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,561.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 44c | 6,586$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 2,567$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 47c | 1,296$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.12 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 63c | 1,188$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 1,184$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 1c | 1,095$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 43c | 938.63$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.61 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 938.63$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.61 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 759.29$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 375.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 290.43$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 54c | 235.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 116.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 25c | 114$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 103.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 44c | 96.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 58.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 57.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 52.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 74c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 64c | 49.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 33.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 72c | 15.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.