College Football · resolved market
Spread: Houston (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0304b41733ab4833ef7216f5d7993744c477f18d587ed0d5edb8c07452691800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Houston, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Houston | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed UCF | 54c | 9,263$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed UCF | 52c | 5,431$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.46 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Houston | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Houston | 46c | 3,263$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.76 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked UCF | 51c | 3,214$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.26 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed UCF | 51c | 3,121$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.77 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed UCF | 50c | 2,490$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Houston | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Houston | 46c | 1,992$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.63 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked UCF | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.83 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed UCF | 54c | 1,426$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Houston | 48c | 1,200$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Houston | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCF | 53c | 755$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Houston | 46c | 686.33$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.62 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1463…56d5backed Houston | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed UCF | 54c | 285$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked UCF | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed UCF | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed UCF | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Houston | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Houston | 47c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Houston | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed UCF | 54c | 128$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCF | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Houston | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Houston | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston | 46c | 45.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed UCF | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed UCF | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Houston | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)this page
- Houston vs. UCFHouston won
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Houston (-0.5)Houston won
- Spread: UCF (-1.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.