Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03111dee5e738913f16641e5d0ae735c15d77a22bd4925fe782fb267de9e39bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 46c | 30,000$13,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,300 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 54c | 19,998$10,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,799 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 55c | 9,710$5,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,340.5 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 1,678$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 62c | 1,500$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 1,352$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 57c | 622.85$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.15 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Yes | 45c | 517.32$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…abfabacked Yes | 80c | 389.41$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 45c | 388.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 42c | 345.88$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.61 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…f10abacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 46c | 62.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 53c | 61.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 45c | 60.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b35bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…d729backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.