Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0324afcc79628d5cb7db530670ac87279e66e76dd8d559539e2054bcd63f007a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Yes | 69c | 5,389$3,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.74 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 42c | 5,188$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.63 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 2,620$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.88 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 1,048$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.49 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Yes | 23c | 1,043$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Yes | 31c | 723.84$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 52c | 586.37$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.21 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 18c | 489.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 436.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.09 | 283 | 32.5%92 W · 191 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed No | 41c | 399.86$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 29c | 261.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 227.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 70c | 174.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 60c | 145.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 138.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 39c | 136.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 434 | 52.1%226 W · 208 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 14c | 127.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…3b73backed Yes | 45c | 100.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 31c | 98.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 1,053 | 41.9%441 W · 612 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 90.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked No | 56c | 85.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 69c | 72.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked No | 70c | 62.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 57.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 26c | 53.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 27c | 48.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed No | 30c | 44.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 78c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…475bbacked No | 56c | 33.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…c628backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…4b94backed No | 49c | 23.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 75c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed Yes | 52c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 73c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.