Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0342ee30c3c80cd9a526f0e74b2d4177743b1ad3dc697418652cb5a7e89c39d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,730$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 59c | 882.45$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.92 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c2…30c5backed Yes | 62c | 861.29$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 49c | 338$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 43c | 336.88$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 289.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 60c | 285.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 78c | 253.87$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 49c | 205$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 36c | 152$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 39c | 120.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 20c | 66.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…7172backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3a…c03dbacked No | 52c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a8…ba3ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…5441backed No | 74c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…57aabacked Yes | 65c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $184 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $186 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $188 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $190 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $192 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $194 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $196 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $198 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $200 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $202 end of January?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $206 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.