World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0383c109c97ff2ae59e5b90819eea418b34e1ea66a83294f517bb3bd1a4a1869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x658c…908bbacked No | 35c | 291.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 38c | 168.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 125.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 124.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 102.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 100.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 92.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 90.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 82.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 56.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 76c | 49.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 49.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 71c | 46.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 46.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 39.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 36.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 33.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 26.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 25.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 44c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 55c | 22.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 64c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 18.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 71c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.