CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x038c830b1df55d7e88acc690326a01ffac9bc32f3712b0a12edfe19e20de99ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof TheMongolz, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Heroic | 67c | 4,551$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.1 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 2,942$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.64 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz | 34c | 1,935$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.6 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked TheMongolz | 26c | 1,314$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Heroic | 63c | 784.13$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.13 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ac…89adbacked TheMongolz | 21c | 484.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed TheMongolz | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Heroic | 69c | 408.04$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…757fbacked TheMongolz | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Heroic | 50c | 321.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.81 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed TheMongolz | 34c | 247$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Heroic | 61c | 216.57$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed TheMongolz | 39c | 166.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked TheMongolz | 37c | 162.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed TheMongolz | 32c | 100.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked TheMongolz | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Heroic | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked TheMongolz | 23c | 75.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…30e9backed Heroic | 50c | 59.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed TheMongolz | 53c | 39.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Heroic | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…578abacked Heroic | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed TheMongolz | 50c | 29.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic (BO3)TheMongolz won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerTheMongolz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.