TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,648 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde49…fe85backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c11,924$7,251 inWon+$4,673.2348451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics42c11,684$4,909 inLost-$4,908.8111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Athletics46c1,617$737 inLost-$736.926545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Athletics10c1,000$100 inLost-$10025249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Pittsburgh Pirates26c946.15$246 inWon+$700.1511454.4%62 W · 52 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates52c406.92$212 inWon+$194.588,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates77c269$208 inWon+$61.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics21c206.43$43 inLost-$43.371,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics75c120$90 inLost-$902,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Pittsburgh Pirates25c120$30 inWon+$9025034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Athletics26c99.99$25 inLost-$25.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Pittsburgh Pirates25c80$20 inWon+$6028639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics44c49.99$22 inLost-$21.874,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Athletics40c42.6$17 inLost-$16.8934451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates80c29.93$24 inWon+$6.082,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates79c29.8$24 inWon+$6.1627652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates75c26.93$20 inWon+$6.733,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates79c26.65$21 inWon+$5.515,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…d0f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates49c25.61$12 inWon+$13.112365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates49c25.51$12 inWon+$13.0124252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates61c25.15$15 inWon+$9.9110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c19.47$10 inWon+$8.9787370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Pittsburgh Pirates74c17.62$13 inWon+$4.51,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.