MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537df4700ad6f3a03d1e849d65a0af9dd61eee2057b952b46689886f79db9a04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37d3…709abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 4,978$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.96 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 54c | 3,169$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 579.67$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Athletics | 31c | 553.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics | 56c | 417.25$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 376.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 57c | 301.31$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Athletics | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 166.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 57c | 162$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Athletics | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Athletics | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 118.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Athletics | 58c | 84.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Athletics | 59c | 66.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 66.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 61.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Athletics | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Athletics | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 47.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 55c | 46.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 58c | 41.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 58c | 37.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…f43fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 23.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 21.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Athletics | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.