MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1a2848763f3b92641d90af48fda9c2294b2059aaeb4e47ed86d2d6dd90f735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 54,055$28,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,108.57 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 29,431$14,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,376.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 10,057$5,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,329.97 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 7,716$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 3,825$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.65 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 3,526$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 52c | 2,462$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 52c | 1,602$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.04 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,081$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…8204backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 999.97$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 47c | 988$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.64 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 840$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 53c | 601.27$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.83 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 48c | 556.07$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.16 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 340.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 307.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 277$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 49c | 231.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 198.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 9c | 175.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 10c | 167.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 132.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 48c | 119.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 40c | 99.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 49c | 90.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 84.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 49c | 80.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 67.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 52c | 64.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 57.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Over | 50c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 78c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 36.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 49c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Under | 53c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Under | 53c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Under | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…b2afbacked Under | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 52c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 76c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.