TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers35c2,791$978 inWon+$1,813.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros65c2,000$1,300 inLost-$1,3005,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Detroit Tigers37c1,822$674 inWon+$1,148.052759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers65c1,702$1,106 inWon+$595.748,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros63c1,314$826 inLost-$825.8910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros65c715.37$465 inLost-$464.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros62c443.08$275 inLost-$275.082,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers35c317.14$111 inWon+$206.144,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros65c305$198 inLost-$198.258,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Houston Astros65c255.61$165 inLost-$165.1256851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros40c150$60 inLost-$605,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Detroit Tigers70c140.91$99 inWon+$42.2779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers60c106$64 inWon+$42.44,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers67c100$67 inWon+$33.1511,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Detroit Tigers44c73.88$33 inWon+$41.3726063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Detroit Tigers69c71.46$49 inWon+$22.151,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros65c62.57$41 inLost-$40.672,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros66c60$40 inLost-$39.646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros66c60$40 inLost-$39.672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros34c60$20 inLost-$20.41,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Houston Astros65c50.02$33 inLost-$32.5127454.4%149 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers72c50$36 inWon+$14.22,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Detroit Tigers34c47$16 inWon+$30.952,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Detroit Tigers35c43$15 inWon+$27.9539250.3%197 W · 195 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Detroit Tigers31c39.42$12 inWon+$27.2542047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros69c38.71$27 inLost-$26.714,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Detroit Tigers35c30.34$11 inWon+$19.7246952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Houston Astros64c30$19 inLost-$19.21,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Detroit Tigers34c29.34$10 inWon+$19.331,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Houston Astros69c29.22$20 inLost-$20.2874657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Houston Astros65c25$16 inLost-$16.2552852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb7…0477backed Houston Astros68c18.5$13 inLost-$12.5411365.5%74 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros63c16$10 inLost-$10.081,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.