TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,116
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,116 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f0c…7ca5backed Under67c10,280$6,887 inWon+$3,392.343036.7%11 W · 19 L-7.9wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-43.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over35c9,228$3,238 inLost-$3,237.8811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over35c2,900$1,015 inLost-$1,014.7212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Under57c2,390$1,362 inWon+$1,027.729948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over46c579.08$267 inLost-$267.32,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over47c505.11$238 inLost-$237.5518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c502.1$270 inWon+$231.9410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over46c235.68$107 inLost-$107.435,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over78c221.99$173 inLost-$173.158264.6%53 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over33c159.78$52 inLost-$52.481,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under61c156$95 inWon+$61.358,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under52c141.07$73 inWon+$68.1874657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Under57c131.58$75 inWon+$56.5826747.9%128 W · 139 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x787b…86c3backed Under58c65$38 inWon+$27.37243.1%31 W · 41 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under64c56$36 inWon+$19.94,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.086053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Under57c35$20 inWon+$15.0523435%82 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over34c32.68$11 inLost-$11.1146952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Under67c28.06$19 inWon+$9.262,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Over51c27.72$14 inLost-$1426063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Under57c26.44$15 inWon+$11.3714546.2%67 W · 78 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked Under67c26.01$17 inWon+$8.5813263.6%84 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Under60c25.62$15 inWon+$10.2542047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…99a6backed Over59c18.36$11 inLost-$10.757852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under71c15$11 inWon+$4.483053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.