Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03dcd2942605477bcf4ddf6512858ea181befca2a998c60d947e8c2a3152c45e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 6,786$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Yes | 28c | 2,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,315$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 32c | 939.76$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.14 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 62c | 531.91$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.78 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked No | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Yes | 60c | 234.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 222.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 54c | 214.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…84c1backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 39c | 175.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 45c | 170.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Yes | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 59c | 85.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 37c | 81.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Yes | 23c | 64.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 39c | 42.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 46c | 39.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…5e45backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…1924backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…916dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Yes | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…1eccbacked Yes | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720c…662ebacked Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…24b8backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a47fbacked Yes | 61c | 17.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.