TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,009 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c25,449$12,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,809.43,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over39c9,997$3,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,853.153953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over35c7,614$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.222,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over51c3,900$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9891833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e1…8720backed Over80c2,616$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over76c2,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.996762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dc…b624backed Over33c999$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.671735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over57c992$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.4410041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over51c980$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.85538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under58c973.55$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.771,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under50c968.04$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over54c918.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Under20c785$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.610026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under20c600.2$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.5534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under53c525.71$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.071,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a0…5804backed Over50c494$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2472548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Over71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over77c390.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008366.3%55 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under50c387.46$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over50c380$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19013142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed Over58c350$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over30c338.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…d370backed Under21c324.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.052832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over31c320.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015461.1%33 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under70c310.89$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x784d…9827backed Over45c300$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-65.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over79c293.27$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.691,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over79c253.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Over40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Over80c250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Under50c247.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.641346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Under77c211.03$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under50c207.32$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.667450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over49c206.21$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.627950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over37c200.26$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2422221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+55.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under52c174.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8830647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over53c169.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9034655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under21c168$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.727345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c2…4901backed Over52c164.46$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…4d47backed Over69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over42c133.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005066%33 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0783…73dbbacked Over35c123.31$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c0…06a0backed Over45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+83%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc003…47a8backed Over44c104.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.38966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3a…c3c8backed Over46c103.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over49c102.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed Over44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Over35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under50c94.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1517749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ad4…7eeabacked Under77c92.68$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over64c87.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2425352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under67c87.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087f…2ebfbacked Over47c67.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.573458.8%20 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797a…0e25backed Over30c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over53c65.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over38c65.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d1…f166backed Over33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+133.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Over26c53.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed Over77c53.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.452075%15 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under37c51.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.355939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under53c50.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0720153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc952…1d90backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe889…b82dbacked Over43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Under63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.57338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb224…fedbbacked Over64c49.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed Over39c43.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.133339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under50c42.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over34c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under58c39.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6121041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0403…29d4backed Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Over80c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over44c36.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5460…15b5backed Over45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6528…8aefbacked Under69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed62…6f83backed Over44c28.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.43333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…e4cabacked Under54c27.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+98.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Over52c27.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Under50c26.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.023562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9368…8b01backed Over44c25.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9db…dd44backed Over40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105855.2%32 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under55c24.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.936245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38e9…736dbacked Over79c24.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192564%16 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8414…c68bbacked Under70c22.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x216c…2dc0backed Over57c21.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Under59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c78…e29bbacked Over66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25066%33 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over53c19.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Over79c12.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.