TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,854 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over55c8,998$4,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,968.7410041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c8,972$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,236.773,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over57c6,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.995653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over58c3,492$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.293953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under43c3,119$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.3353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcde4…91b3backed Under43c3,023$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over59c2,542$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under41c2,330$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.676465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Under43c2,324$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.885152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under43c2,107$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.982638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over50c2,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.996762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over23c1,250$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.510026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb1…0d66backed Under43c1,243$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+57.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Over58c1,187$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Over54c982.01$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52715540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under43c929.98$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.9514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under43c881.54$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.4856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked Under49c777.55$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.551275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under42c713.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.075145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over58c699.99$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40622747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under42c652.92$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.611,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over55c600$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33216850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c576.46$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1734144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over59c513.56$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30318759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2954360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2804465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under41c362.51$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.888252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under45c350$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Over60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Under44c315$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under44c304.01$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7825850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2206…ae92backed Over33c303.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under42c295$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.130054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over17c282.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1110642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6376…c865backed Under60c222.25$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over59c219.11$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2710040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over12c212.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.472,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over32c200.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3622221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11013957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Over40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over49c199.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9910246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under43c186.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.052147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b09…2c43backed Under44c162.52$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under43c155.39$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…6f83backed Over23c152.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.14333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Under45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.52850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under43c139.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3518353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7907…2ad0backed Under45c136$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed Under45c130$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Over58c120.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Under45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Over57c117$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Under43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.284551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Under44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under42c112.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66fe…2fbfbacked Over58c112.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Under45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.115742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…1b9cbacked Over59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4538845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over44c99.8$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.722352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Over58c94.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.893246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Under45c91.87$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.539265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x391c…ea3fbacked Over56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over58c85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.312843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x727d…c2e0backed Under42c83.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over56c82.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1912056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Under45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446755.2%37 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Under45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under54c73.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.930647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under63c69.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under71c68.9$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.988347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over29c68.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9839558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Over58c60.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Under65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215939%23 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under45c59.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8112157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3308…6ceebacked Over17c58.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd499…7d5bbacked Under43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over57c58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.063040%12 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under43c58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0615244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under45c56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.88647.7%41 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over56c55.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.074242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6372…1a3cbacked Under44c54.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6e…bd37backed Under43c52.7$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.041060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ed…d1b2backed Over57c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under43c46.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5248146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under41c44.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.