Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03e6cdb6bf3ff629f6681c259749686e2d88c2a8c3cafea01b8360deade4d383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 59c | 750.67$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.99 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 284.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 252.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 44c | 226.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…92ebbacked Yes | 40c | 154.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 152.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 73c | 136.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 135.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 128.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 106.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 43c | 100.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 41c | 81.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 41c | 80.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 70.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 39c | 68.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 38c | 68.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 63.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 64c | 62.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 48c | 61.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 26c | 56.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 60c | 43.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 42.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 60c | 42.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 47c | 41.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 39.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 38.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 54c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 35.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes | 41c | 30.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa441…3417backed Yes | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 57c | 24.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77a…4238backed Yes | 76c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.