Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ea97cf198d668be4aaab725333d5283d6d6406135ec8c35427d6fd3c5ab591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,037$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 71c | 804.25$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.18 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 479.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 23c | 406.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 369$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 272.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 21c | 208.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 206.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 75c | 164.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 35c | 147.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 23c | 118.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85a…a2edbacked Yes | 10c | 102.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 25c | 100.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 27c | 88.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 86.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…3d88backed Yes | 21c | 72.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 72.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 29c | 63.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 59.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 21c | 57.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 19c | 53.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 25c | 45.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 35c | 37.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…81fdbacked No | 76c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 76c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.