Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0410adb4d4ac286188313e877dfcd6c80a66fca151530e6a38dda7ffec3a2e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,152$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.59 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,475$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 2,194$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 9c | 2,172$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…af5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,766$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yes | 16c | 845.59$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 2c | 724.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 15c | 697.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 677.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 633.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 15c | 549.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 10c | 472.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 9c | 402.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 385.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 345.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…5676backed Yes | 24c | 298.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 79c | 296.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 246.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 13c | 236.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 227.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 194.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 77c | 189.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…79dbbacked Yes | 16c | 187.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb90…6050backed Yes | 25c | 183.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…3e9dbacked Yes | 12c | 162.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 18c | 144.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 13c | 133.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 129.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 79c | 119.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 11c | 116.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 115.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 16c | 111.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 11c | 111.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 25c | 109.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 78c | 104.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 20c | 101.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 21c | 95.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 19c | 92.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…0b53backed Yes | 27c | 86.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 17c | 75.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 70.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 20c | 68.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…3374backed No | 80c | 68.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…b539backed Yes | 20c | 63.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 80c | 58.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 51.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 48.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 22c | 47.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…6450backed No | 78c | 34.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 78c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…f1a7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…0e05backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…e41cbacked No | 80c | 13.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.