Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40764fceba5fc0f3f5ff03a246bb1fc6844d95d85fbb6cd53009460629e505b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,941$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.34 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 1,601$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed No | 74c | 1,416$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 35c | 1,085$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.56 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…4cabbacked Yes | 7c | 510.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 379.61$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 69c | 355.68$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 27c | 355.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 319.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 37c | 306.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 78c | 296.66$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 78c | 251.93$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 73c | 240.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 239.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 27c | 208.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b8a8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 25c | 198.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 194.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…64c5backed No | 73c | 179.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 27c | 167.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 38c | 141.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…ee11backed No | 77c | 126.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 19c | 124.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 72c | 120.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 119.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 117.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 24c | 115.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 30c | 111.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 101.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 28c | 101.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 27c | 96.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 32c | 91.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…0e98backed Yes | 22c | 83.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 34c | 74.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…24d7backed No | 74c | 71.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 74c | 71.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 70.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 64c | 66.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…2a11backed Yes | 28c | 65.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 35c | 65.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…79dbbacked Yes | 28c | 64.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 71c | 58.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…e420backed Yes | 28c | 57.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 56.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 27c | 55.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2988…2fd0backed Yes | 31c | 51.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 49.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 38c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…8ee9backed Yes | 30c | 37.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…e8cbbacked Yes | 30c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 79c | 29.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 71c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 77c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.54per pick | 70cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…a109backed No | 74c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 73c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.