Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9782e450456deaf7b228b4d1f5ac8cac25a3eb9b642b30ce8808dee7a290e503
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 1c | 2,820$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…4736backed No | 1c | 1,983$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 10c | 1,297$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.35 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 1,205$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 51c | 548.23$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 8c | 399.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 8c | 380.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…ce93backed Yes | 50c | 371.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 361.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 52c | 341.55$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 15c | 279.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 10c | 278.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 19c | 249.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 9c | 206.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 51c | 199.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 54c | 192.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 59c | 186.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 67c | 161.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 157.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 156.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 48c | 147.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 140.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 138.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 138.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 133.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 79c | 132.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 124.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 44c | 116.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 41c | 114.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 11c | 100.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 18c | 99.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 38c | 98.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 64c | 98.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 50c | 97.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 14c | 91.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 90.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 40c | 90.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 42c | 89.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed Yes | 48c | 87.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 42c | 84.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 83.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed No | 62c | 78.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 35c | 76.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 38c | 74.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…bd47backed Yes | 53c | 72.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 50c | 72.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 70.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 69c | 69.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 68.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…f426backed Yes | 39c | 68.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 56c | 67.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 43c | 65.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…edb0backed Yes | 55c | 58.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 24c | 57.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8e…435cbacked No | 64c | 55.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…ddfabacked Yes | 53c | 53.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 29c | 52.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 37c | 50.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 62c | 50.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…a826backed Yes | 48c | 49.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 31c | 49.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 45c | 47.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 47.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…59debacked No | 60c | 47.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…362dbacked No | 64c | 46.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…2a11backed Yes | 44c | 42.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 42.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 51c | 41.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…d208backed Yes | 47c | 40.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…cb10backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 39.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 57c | 38.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 56c | 38.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 46c | 38.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 28c | 38.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed Yes | 58c | 38.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 37c | 37.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…bb99backed Yes | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…ec62backed Yes | 53c | 35.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 30c | 35.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8595…3a2cbacked Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed No | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 47c | 31.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.