MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041460bca69733b5d6a77eff8a19be96dcde9abbe0ebf8f4317feddb69ac776d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 17,103$7,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,240.73 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 3,680$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.2 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 1,900$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 1,344$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.89 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 1,228$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.01 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 312.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 220$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 203$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 111$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 63.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.