Commodities · resolved market
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042158eff2ded31131745908f5615012802f95dec0149a29554111494ee29aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Up | 34c | 3,450$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.45 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 6c | 926.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 20c | 601.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Up | 31c | 426.21$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.73 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Up | 47c | 404.37$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…845bbacked Down | 32c | 370$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a1…0963backed Up | 68c | 370$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42c…1d8cbacked Down | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Up | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed Up | 30c | 259.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…0697backed Up | 45c | 241.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Up | 39c | 209.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Up | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Up | 29c | 161$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495b…8762backed Down | 69c | 150.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…975cbacked Down | 67c | 149.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6524…0c36backed Down | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Up | 35c | 105.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614c…42ebbacked Up | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Down | 57c | 99.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…5df3backed Up | 68c | 94.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…c203backed Up | 64c | 93.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…34fbbacked Down | 67c | 92.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…b1ccbacked Up | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Up | 51c | 49.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Up | 43c | 45.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…a948backed Up | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Up | 38c | 38.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…1042backed Down | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Up | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…0453backed Down | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…c82bbacked Up | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…25c8backed Up | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…2d48backed Down | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…3756backed Up | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.