Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044ef83dd5a4310afa9aabc225827a63426e0946ac6b1384a3680147b4308c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 4,100$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.86 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 858.46$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 23c | 749.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 665.46$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 21c | 522.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 25c | 500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 25c | 499.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 450.87$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 321.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Yes | 19c | 244$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 22c | 222.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…7432backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 23c | 197$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Yes | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 23c | 161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d2c4backed Yes | 23c | 143.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…4059backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 15c | 114.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Yes | 27c | 99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 78c | 91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 90.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 77c | 86.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…d51dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 76c | 62.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 38.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…9f2abacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.