Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Ofner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x045ab4eeea3494a4da1f90f61b71aea51adf00470f706bc672af7983e6523262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ofner | 28c | 721.16$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Minaur | 66c | 569.91$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.52 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed Minaur | 72c | 427.28$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ofner | 34c | 422.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Minaur | 75c | 299.87$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Ofner | 25c | 278.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ofner | 38c | 259.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Minaur | 79c | 187.48$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Minaur | 66c | 103.52$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Ofner | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 71c | 95.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…0cb9backed Ofner | 32c | 90.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Minaur | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Minaur | 70c | 78.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ofner | 19c | 69.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Minaur | 63c | 59.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Minaur | 68c | 51.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Ofner | 34c | 47.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Minaur | 62c | 40.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Minaur | 76c | 36.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minaur | 76c | 34.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minaur | 72c | 29.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…dc46backed Minaur | 70c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Minaur | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Ofnerthis page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Sebastian Ofner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian OfnerAlex de Minaur won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.