Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb2632609686001ec4b281b0ce1e47542f5afe7d7061593e90b39b7207d30d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Ofner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ofner | 34c | 3,164$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Minaur | 68c | 2,892$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.72 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Minaur | 66c | 2,196$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ofner | 32c | 1,287$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.82 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ofner | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ofner | 36c | 542.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Minaur | 60c | 487$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.8 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Ofner | 38c | 398.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Minaur | 62c | 313.42$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Minaur | 67c | 307.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 351 | 64.1%225 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Ofner | 40c | 289.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minaur | 58c | 255.66$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Ofner | 33c | 203.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Ofner | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Minaur | 51c | 196.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Minaur | 66c | 161$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Ofner | 15c | 140.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Ofner | 42c | 133.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Minaur | 64c | 123.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Minaur | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 55c | 116.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Minaur | 63c | 114.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Ofner | 32c | 114.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ofner | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Minaur | 67c | 98.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Ofner | 33c | 81.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Ofner | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Minaur | 44c | 69.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Minaur | 44c | 65.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Ofner | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Ofner | 38c | 57.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Ofner | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Minaur | 66c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Minaur | 65c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Ofner | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Minaur | 60c | 27.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5)this page
- Alex de Minaur vs. Sebastian Ofner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian OfnerAlex de Minaur won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Ofner: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs OfnerMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.