MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x045d14c3cb48fc8c11b24f489ae94ddddcc03662cf7a6446c64f38fc776da2c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 1,528$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 1,033$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.52 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 726.19$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 713.51$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.15 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 171.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 105.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Detroit Tigers | 46c | 104.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 100.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 219 | 56.6%124 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 78.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 71.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 56.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798a…cc72backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 56.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 36.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Detroit Tigers | 50c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Detroit Tigers | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.