Mls · resolved market
Will Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0475810f08cf74032ab602c1d70f8b91059b4845a7b44bb86fc8732abd7f1723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 25,626$18,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,954.77 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 11,391$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 32c | 5,572$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.7 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055d…1ef0backed Yes | 3c | 3,038$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 31c | 1,368$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.63 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Yes | 32c | 1,100$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 22c | 936.36$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 30c | 656.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 79c | 648.28$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…9943backed Yes | 8c | 625.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 21c | 587.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 477.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 30c | 427.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 391.54$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 74c | 375$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 73c | 375$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed No | 74c | 375$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 22c | 360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 23c | 352.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 330.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Yes | 32c | 293.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 18c | 268.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 21c | 245.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 24c | 233$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 76c | 225$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 161$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 156.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 153.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 33c | 138$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 79c | 124.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 79c | 124.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Yes | 31c | 121.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 32c | 112.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 100.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Yes | 31c | 91.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 22c | 89.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 87.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 22c | 74.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 22c | 69.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 78c | 68.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 80c | 42.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Yes | 32c | 36.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 34.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 32.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 78c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 78c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…2489backed No | 80c | 14.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.