MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048139666c5ebe0444bc05c16a17c985193f6e3d49d9fd376ad5dc59ea1ddf1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 1,295$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.39 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…c219backed Under | 49c | 1,187$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,097$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 50c | 850$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 11c | 737$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 602.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 50c | 580.92$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.46 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 429.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 51c | 213.31$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 51c | 192.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 7c | 153.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 50c | 141.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 51c | 128.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 26c | 118.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 112.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…c62cbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 64.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 56c | 64.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…6d36backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.