TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$182,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b47…d814backed New York Mets53c52,477$27,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,750.2418248.4%88 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Washington Nationals48c16,729$8,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0301,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked New York Mets37c14,100$5,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,882.9719950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets37c12,654$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,004.032,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Washington Nationals67c9,819$6,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,578.9443554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals63c9,104$5,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,727.624,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals49c8,962$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,406.178,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals28c6,262$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.9311,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals46c5,344$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.238,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals65c4,911$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.674,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Washington Nationals44c4,885$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.2615451.9%80 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets51c4,590$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.043,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Washington Nationals54c4,288$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.8240043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Washington Nationals49c4,100$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00969453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Washington Nationals46c3,314$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.7695045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed New York Mets46c3,232$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.3912759.1%75 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals43c3,213$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.5310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Mets52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Washington Nationals48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9475248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Washington Nationals35c2,182$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8631957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Washington Nationals49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe963…6753backed New York Mets51c1,576$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.596341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked Washington Nationals20c1,453$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed New York Mets52c1,430$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.3489153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Washington Nationals10c1,405$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4913225%33 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Mets51c1,224$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.821,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Washington Nationals29c1,125$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2525447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets51c1,037$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.136,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Washington Nationals49c1,033$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50622948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked New York Mets51c999.97$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9830647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets56c999$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.561,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals39c978.91$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.078,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1b…ec19backed Washington Nationals49c900.03$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.131752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals36c826.11$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.692,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets43c738$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.174,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Washington Nationals41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Washington Nationals49c717$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.3355653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Washington Nationals44c699.99$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.992450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked New York Mets51c694.52$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.3117150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Mets52c623.38$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.0919051.1%97 W · 93 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Mets67c575.78$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4255658.1%323 W · 233 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Washington Nationals48c550$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2641,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals44c511.44$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.989,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecc…7850backed Washington Nationals49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked New York Mets51c499.97$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9913848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked New York Mets51c491.68$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.9245748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals46c481.14$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5592046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets48c468.76$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.625,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed New York Mets43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1214134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Washington Nationals48c416.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.151,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Mets53c409.8$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6179442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Nationals66c395.9$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6847358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed New York Mets79c377$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.171,09979.7%876 W · 223 L+33.4wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals50c350.76$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.852,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed New York Mets45c349$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.6515851.9%82 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Washington Nationals10c338$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1457758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals48c331.76$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.611,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Washington Nationals49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15058060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c0…b200backed Washington Nationals58c296.02$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.693652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Washington Nationals55c275.05$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2621449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals49c258.52$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.531,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked New York Mets52c246.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1515153%80 W · 71 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Washington Nationals51c245.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.347248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed New York Mets56c234.43$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1537546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked New York Mets53c230$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.128753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12cc…3587backed Washington Nationals49c210$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.94955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Washington Nationals49c210$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.917348%83 W · 90 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Washington Nationals49c208.16$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213743.8%60 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Washington Nationals27c205$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.712245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Washington Nationals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007860.3%47 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Washington Nationals49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016552.7%87 W · 78 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Washington Nationals49c204$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9611258%65 W · 47 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Washington Nationals26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Washington Nationals39c194.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3147852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked New York Mets52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.315846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked New York Mets56c188.63$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6313666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Mets52c184$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3254642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Washington Nationals49c179.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8814064.3%90 W · 50 L+11.4wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Washington Nationals41c175$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7511044.5%49 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals50c161.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b65…e6bfbacked New York Mets34c152.52$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.663956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Washington Nationals44c149.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.852123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets50c134.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.085,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe814…be87backed Washington Nationals49c134.49$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.31323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-45.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed Washington Nationals39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.127352%142 W · 131 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed New York Mets52c125.12$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.348660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed New York Mets52c125$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2561…ce3ebacked New York Mets42c124.05$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.825249.6%125 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Mets51c119.65$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.963954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets51c119$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.192,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets44c118.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.373,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…f004backed Washington Nationals45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.955639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed New York Mets51c108$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9295252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd60…3927backed Washington Nationals49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed New York Mets71c100.35$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9825355.7%141 W · 112 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Washington Nationals48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4877050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Mets51c98.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.221,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Nationals34c95.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.681,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed New York Mets52c95.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9918742.8%80 W · 107 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.