MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b74927ef5faef1a54bb16b7153fbf01baed5cc8f47516696095997c7f2be46e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 26c | 7,439$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,505.19 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 6,920$4,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 1,524$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.86 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 61c | 766.68$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 53c | 713.27$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 35c | 580.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.25 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 422.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Mets | 37c | 398.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 14c | 389.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 40c | 230$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets | 34c | 199.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 35c | 157.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 156.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Mets | 35c | 149$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Mets | 42c | 147.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 139.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 34c | 138.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 125.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 64.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 60.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 39c | 52.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed New York Mets | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed New York Mets | 45c | 28.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 22.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.