Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0485cd7a2637c47e5f5149a12b4ae87088b037165576c0e238ae6567321662e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 389.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 262.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 47c | 232.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 27c | 218.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 210.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 155.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 143.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 140.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 9c | 115.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 112.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 45c | 89.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 41c | 82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 77.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 69.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 45.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 43.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 43.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 41.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 40.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…9ec2backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 59c | 32.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 30.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 47c | 30.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 28.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 46c | 25.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 25.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 65c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 410 | 41.5%170 W · 240 L | +33.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 51c | 21.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 77c | 16.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.