Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa80995adf892610ee6aa13b0936608ef156d7f6ae752cf4629dff7f16d68f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 550$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 34c | 531.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 238.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 225.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 29c | 208.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 162.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 158.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 155.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 155.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked No | 69c | 144.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 72c | 136.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 133.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 118.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 92.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 79c | 74.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 71.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 65.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 62.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 74c | 51.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 22c | 50.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 26c | 48.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 23c | 46.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 45.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 27c | 37.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 36.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 19.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 73c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 72c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 15.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.