MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0497ac75afe914228b684bf87f3073f7c3ec94d04c84c3ec23a2b47ee9bd89a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 63c | 2,349$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 1,607$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 468$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 408.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 383.52$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 36c | 308.45$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 64c | 299.29$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 229.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 32c | 114.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 37c | 114.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 64c | 81.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 57c | 75.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 40c | 62.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 61c | 58.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 39c | 51.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 31c | 49.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 41c | 38.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 53c | 33.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…02bfbacked Under | 66c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Under | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 64c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.